The global TV market will return to growth in 2013 after shipments fell by 6 percent last year, with growth continuing out to 2017, according to a new report from Futuresource Consulting.
“Our forecasts show emerging markets will grow by 6 percent this year, accounting for over 60% of worldwide TV volumes,” said Simon Bryant, head of consumer electronics at Futuresource Consulting. “Meanwhile, developed markets continue to shrink as flat panels approach saturation point and market stimuli such as analogue switch off and government incentive schemes come to an end. However, the global picture remains encouraging, with 4 percent CAGR expected to 2017, when annual shipments will exceed 270 million units and emerging markets will account for 67 percent.
“And although 4K—the next step in ultra-high definition video—still has a two to three year incubation period ahead, it is making its presence known and is on track to become a significant technology segment. Global 4K TV shipments will grow from just 62,000 units last year, to 780,000 in 2013 and 22 million units in 2017. The arrival of native 4K content and increased consumer awareness will help boost sales from 2015 onwards.”
China is currently at the forefront of 4K rollout, driven by relatively low-priced sets from its major domestic brands. However, Futuresource expects most global TV brands to launch a range of 4K TVs by the end of this year, with North America tipped to be a key market due to strong consumer appetite for large screens.
“LCD TV panel manufacturers and premium TV brands have been looking for the next hot trigger to accelerate flat panel replacement. 3D in the home was an attempt to achieve this and it has yet to become the solid success that many had hoped for,” said Bryant. “4K represents a more natural progression for the industry, but one that brings its own challenges, not least the intricacies of producing 4K panels at high yield rates and the complexities of delivering the bandwidth-hungry content. Substantial compression improvements provided by the HEVC codec will smooth the way for broadcast, and although the real-time encoding required for live transmission is still embryonic, solutions are being trialled and evaluated.”
The new Global TV Market Report from Futuresource provides a global TV market overview, market development by region, by technology, smart TV market development, 3DTV market development, UHD TV market development and TV vendor market shares. 4K volume forecast data for 22 individual countries and regions is also available, as is a separate 4K report that explores the strategic impact of 4K across the entertainment value chain.